Ernesto poses MAJOR threat

I have reserved my postings until I was certain there was at least a 40% chance of Ernesto affecting our weather. After seeing the developments today (center redevelop NE) I am fairly confident the North Central/North East Gulf will have to deal with Hurricane to be Ernesto. Ernesto is forecasted to become a major hurricane in the gulf of Mexico with the potential of reaching cat 4 status prior to landfall. Strengthening will begin once an Upper Level Low moves off to the west causing a favorable upper air environment to form over Ernesto. All interests from Tampa, FL to Galveston Bay, TX should closely monitor the progress of this developing situation. Once the storm passes Jamaica I will have updates every 4-5 hours depending on its impact on our area.

CHRIS a mere shadow of his/her former self!!

CHRIS has undergone a large amount of unforseen wind shear an dry air intrusion. The storm is more than likely nothing more than a tropical depression at this time. Until I see some regeneration from Chris this will be the last post regarding this storm. There is still a chance for Chris to regain some steam but the window is closing. Perhaps if the storm can keeps its basic structure it might have a chance at regeneration once it enters the Gulf of Mexico.

UNTIL THE NEXT GULF THREAT!!!!

CHRIS powering up and heading for the Gulf!!!

Tropical Storm Chris is making a bee line for the Florida Straits. Originally forecast to dissipate, Chris rapidly strengthened into a potent Tropical Storm. As I type e this an Air Force reconnaissance hurricane hunter aircraft is heading for the system to see if Chris has strengthened any further. Here is a blurb from the 11 AM update from the National Hurricane Center :
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WASLOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.4 WEST OR ABOUT 120MILES...190 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST. THOMAS.CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONTHIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE VIRGINISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...SOMEOF THE STRONG RAIN BANDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS MAY AFFECTPUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAYMORNING.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHERGUSTS. CHRIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.ANOTHER AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE CHRISTHIS AFTERNOON.
All indications are that CHRIS will remain on a w-wnw track and enter the SE Gulf of Mexico buy sometime late Sunday night. Uncertainty remains on its track once it enters the gulf so everyone from the Big Bend of Florida to the south Texas coast should monitor the progress of Chris once it enters the Gulf. Any deviation north in the current track reasoning(prior to entering the gulf) could bring CHRIS dangerously close to south Florida.

Alberto almost a CANE!!

But that is about as close as he is going to get. It appears Alberto underwent some unexpected intensification overnight and his winds have increased to near 70 mph. Alberto continues to move off to the N/NNE and is expected to make landfall sometime tomorrow. Alberto continues to be influenced by wind shear and an approaching Trough of Low Pressure. Alberto might have one last chance to make it to hurricane status before landfall due to a warm eddy of water south of Port St. Joe , FL. Hurricane warnings are out from the Eastern Florida Panhandle to West Central Florida however rain is more likely to be problematic than the wind.

Alberto

As of the 11 A.M. advisory from the NHC Td#1 has become Tropical Storm Alberto. Max winds are at 45 mph. Alberto is currently a terribly sheared system with all of the severe weather well to the east of the circulation center. Alberto continues to move to the NW/NNW slowly and a general turn to the N and NE is expected later in the forecast. There is some thinking that the Low Level Center may seperate totally from the precipitation and meander westward and discipate or WSW and toward the Bay Of Campeche. NO matter Alberto doesnt look to become any stronger in the short term and might actually not survive the high shear environment.

Still Watching

The system continues to try and organize. People in the Caymen Islands and Western tip of Cuae should be experiencing HEAVY rainfall throughout the day and evening. Computer models now bring this area into the south cenral/south eastern Gulf of Mexico by tomorrow night. Al linterests along the Florida West coast over to New Orleans should monitor the progress of this area of disturbed weather.

Monitoring the Northern Caribbean and Gulf

According to the National Hurricane Center and my friends at Storm2K it appears the distrubance in the Northern Caribbean is organizing. Various forecast models bring this disturbance in to the Gulf of Mexico. It is still to early to predict a track, however anywhere from Houston, TX to Key West, FL needs to keep an eye on the situation. I will post again later today or if anything develops sooner. **Nothing major to report other than it appears from buoy observations in the area that a low level center is forming. Recon aircraft from Keesler, AFB will be flying into the system tomorrow to investigate***

New Look and Feel to Blog

I figure I will devote this blog to keeping my friends updated on the current tropical happenings during the hurricane season. The Atlantic Hurricane season runs from June 1st thru November 30th. Enjoy the new changes and check back often for the latest updates.